Carbon payment strategies in coffee agroforests shape climate and biodiversity outcomes

 

Agricultural supply chains increasingly mitigate climate change and biodiversity loss through initiatives that either plant trees or protect threatened carbon stocks on farmlands. We conducted a global meta-analysis to evaluate how these programs may impact carbon and biodiversity outcomes across coffee agriculture, which spans a vegetation complexity gradient from monoculture to biodiverse agroforestry. For aboveground carbon, we estimated coffee farms currently hold 481.59 TgC globally and could sequester an additional 81.53-86.50 TgC under different agroforestry adoption scenarios. However, more than twice as much aboveground carbon could be lost under intensification scenarios (174.23-221.45 TgC). While tree diversity supports overall biodiversity in agroforestry, we found it does not independently increase carbon, indicating carbon and biodiversity outcomes may be decoupled. Ultimately, tree planting programs in coffee can sequester meaningful carbon volumes but may fail to achieve global carbon and biodiversity goals if they do not also protect existing agroforestry and diversify planting efforts.